Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 184.076040 217.153290 256.148703 305.969607 368.586756 445.565232 5.487502e+02
2025-10-26 143.344160 183.152633 235.204738 309.820528 416.723824 568.760157 8.098643e+02
2025-11-02 118.602624 160.296427 219.022538 310.771480 456.389096 689.841712 1.118734e+03
2025-11-09 100.125313 141.080774 202.089513 303.989748 479.585550 790.820876 1.442069e+03
2025-11-16 86.718479 126.354999 188.153770 297.289187 499.113069 890.241597 1.814400e+03
2025-11-23 76.317595 114.332529 175.909651 289.956554 514.317698 985.666789 2.235032e+03
2025-11-30 72.737142 112.466221 179.705431 311.387654 590.437831 1238.559202 3.235198e+03
2025-12-07 67.001752 106.114149 174.574260 314.628341 629.645930 1424.796769 4.218824e+03
2025-12-14 62.758634 101.704331 172.123202 322.492138 681.563907 1669.502932 5.676890e+03
2025-12-21 58.114838 95.972868 166.290025 321.946955 713.218783 1874.967014 7.261532e+03
2025-12-28 56.649757 95.815111 171.098696 345.713589 815.530517 2363.959668 1.108787e+04
2026-01-04 54.702944 94.486027 173.318091 364.026149 910.422061 2900.905901 1.661623e+04
2026-01-11 52.329750 92.211236 173.576720 378.656841 1004.228397 3532.076698 2.535809e+04
2026-01-18 49.602764 88.934211 171.248346 386.406816 1081.085462 4175.726492 3.783306e+04
2026-01-25 46.739932 85.061618 167.053198 388.325701 1140.036489 4805.603994 5.512598e+04
2026-02-01 43.476278 80.023819 159.548447 379.518369 1157.235650 5237.149088 7.389695e+04
2026-02-08 40.558254 75.436399 152.521515 370.708567 1171.853783 5684.329007 9.968694e+04
2026-02-15 37.890694 71.138475 145.660442 361.051558 1179.962602 6112.884108 1.338337e+05
2026-02-22 37.548059 71.832618 150.888267 389.353078 1364.186755 8154.964575 3.084412e+05
2026-03-01 35.957707 69.613061 148.631622 393.645632 1444.348106 9535.784046 5.623815e+05
2026-03-08 34.776124 68.200342 148.237685 404.074236 1561.824678 11587.152727 1.262328e+06
2026-03-15 33.187317 65.715328 144.767337 403.350668 1623.142741 13227.455855 2.604856e+06
2026-03-22 33.023091 66.513929 150.073278 434.978707 1885.514248 18433.826214 1.721314e+07